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Prediction for CME (2023-12-31T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-31T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28422/-1
CME Note: Fast partial halo CME with protruding narrower nose, seen in SOHO C2/C3 coronagraphs (fully covered by a data gap in STEREO A beacon); associated with X5 class flare from AR13536 near East limb. Coronal signatures include narrow ejecta seen in GOES SUVI 304 starting 2023-12-31T21:44Z and a wide EUV wave in AIA 193. Possible arrival signature is characterized by sharp jumping in B tot from 5nT to just under 10nT and increases in solar wind speed (from 425 km/s to ~490 km/s), density and temperature. DSCOVR is corroborated by ACE (despite large data gaps). The initial shock is followed after 2024-01-03T16:30Z by a smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, indicating a flux rope. An hour later there is a similar arrival signature at STEREO A. Tentatively associating this arrival with 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME. Even though this might alternatively be 2023-12-30T09:36Z CME arriving, 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME is a likelier candidate bc of high speed at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T14:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-02T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28430/1
Model Inputs:
2023-12-31T22:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-60.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=2184.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-12-31T23:23Z

This analysis is very uncertain since the absence of STEREO data, CME complex shape seemingly not corresponding to the available coronal signatures make it hard to interpret it with certainty.


Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-02T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-02T07:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-03T12:30Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-02T23:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 46.82 hour(s)
Difference: 20.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-01-01T15:30Z

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